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Identification and forecasting of bull and bear markets using multivariate re...
Bull and bear market identification generally focuses on a broad index of returns through a univariate analysis. This paper proposes a new approach to identify and forecast bull... -
Nonlinear Granger Causality: Guidelines for Multivariate Analysis (replicatio...
We propose an extension of the bivariate nonparametric Diks-Panchenko Granger non-causality test to multivariate settings. We first show that the asymptotic theory for the... -
Forecasting large datasets with Bayesian reduced rank multivariate models (re...
The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and... -
Small-sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions...
Existing methods for constructing confidence bands for multivariate impulse response functions may have poor coverage at long lead times when variables are highly persistent.... -
Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengt...
We consider the problem of estimating parametric multivariate density models when unequal amounts of data are available on each variable. We focus in particular on the case that... -
Business and default cycles for credit risk (replication data)
Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether these cycles coincide....
