Jean Roch Donsimoni
Rene Glawion
Bodo Plachter
Klaus Wälde

projecting the spread of covid19 for germany

We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Data and Resources

Suggested Citation

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, Rene; Plachter, Bodo; Wälde, Klaus (2020): Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany. Version: 1. German Economic Review. Dataset.

JEL Codes