This archive contains the replication package for the paper "The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates" by Alessandro Barbarino, Travis Berge and Andrea Stella, published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024. Output gaps that are estimated in real time can differ substantially from those estimated after the fact. We provide a comprehensive comparison of real-time output gap estimates, with the aim of understanding this real-time instability. Using a statistical decomposition we find that including a Okun's law relationship improves real-time stability by alleviating the end-point problem. Models that include the unemployment rate also produce output gaps with relevant economic content.
